National Weather Service: Tropical Storm Irene A Serious Threat for St. Croix

At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Irene was located near Latitude 15.3N, Longitude 59.9W or about 360 miles east-southeast of St. Croix and moving west at 22 miles per hour. Storm intensity was at 50 miles per hour. 

According to the National Weather Service, the current track of Tropical Storm Irene continues towards the west and it represents a serious threat to the Virgin Islands, since the storm center is forecast to pass south of St. Croix. This implies an imminent risk for tropical storm force winds and frequent bands of intense rainfall with wind gusts approaching near hurricane force as the system approaches. Bands of moisture well ahead of the main circulation are already affecting St. Croix and will continue to propagate westward across the rest of the Virgin Islands as early as Sunday morning.

The National Weather Service is forecasting that tropical storm conditions are most likely to begin Sunday morning across the Virgin Islands. 

Winds. As Tropical Storm Irene moves closer the threat for sustained high winds is likely to increase. The latest forecast is for strong tropical storm force winds from late Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning. Winds are forecast to be in the 35 to 50 miles per hour range with gusts of 65 miles per hour or greater. East swells will begin to affect the coastal waters Sunday afternoon and will build significantly by Sunday night through Monday morning. Combined seas across the regional waters are expected to build to 12 feet or greater.

Rainfall. Rain bands with torrential downpours are expected to begin affecting the Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible in favored areas. This rainfall will result in rapid rises of local streams, rivers and guts. Mudslides and debris flow are anticipated in areas of steep terrain. 

Storm Surge. The impact from combined storm surge and tide waters is expected to be low. The storm surge is forecast to range from 1 to 3 feet. This surge will add to the normal tide levels, creating above normal tides. The potential exists for a short period of inundation of low lying areas until the onshore winds subside. In addition to above normal tides, dangerous surf conditions and strong rip currents are expected. The combination of strong winds and hazardous surf could result in significant beach erosion and possibly coastal flooding of low lying areas and roads. 

Tornadoes and Waterspouts. Isolated tornadoes will be most likely to occur across local islands in the outer rain bands as the center of Tropical Storm Irene approaches the local area and then passes south of the Virgin Islands Sunday afternoon. Tornadoes can develop many miles away from the tropical cyclone center of circulation.

The Office of the Governor, VITEMA joins the National Weather Service in urging citizens to rush to complete preparations for the protection of life and property. Be prepared to evacuate if directed to do so by local officials or if your home is vulnerable to high winds or flooding. For interests at ports, docks and marinas, urgently complete prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations plan for tropical cyclones. 
If you live on a boat make final preparations for securing your craft before leaving it. Be sure to account for the possible closure of bridges and causeways. Regarding any coastal waters under a warning, small craft should remain in port and well secured. For additional precautionary and preparedness information please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your location as further described by your local national weather service office and local emergency management.

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in San Juan around 3 a.m. or sooner if conditions warrant. A Tropical Storm Warning and Flash Flood Watch remain in effect.

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